BRICS+ inductive scenario: The accidental superpower

Premise: Dysfunctional by design

By 2035, BRICS+ doesn’t collapse under its own contradictions, nor does it morph into a cohesive challenger to the G7. Instead, it stumbles into superpower status by a series of messy accidents, economic disasters, and geopolitical farces. Less deliberate empire, more Frankenstein with a membership card.

As the West self-harms through sanctions, debt cliffs, and diplomatic hubris, BRICS+ rises—not through coordination, but sheer entropy.

They didn’t build an empire. They inherited the scrapyard and accidentally started selling tickets. — Anonymous EU diplomat, 2034

The dollar’s slow-motion collapse (2026–2030)

A US debt ceiling crisis sparks what analysts later dub “the Taper Tantrum 2.0”. When a last-minute budget standoff leads to a missed Treasury payment, global markets convulse. The US dollar—once the undisputed anchor of global finance—suffers a confidence crisis. China and India, already trading in local currencies within BRICS+ frameworks, weather the storm better than expected. The yuan and rupee don’t replace the dollar—but they do become credible enough alternatives to reduce panic.

We didn’t switch because we trusted them. We switched because we trusted Washington less. — NDB internal memo, 2027

The NDB’s ‘too big to fail’ moment (2031)

The New Development Bank, BRICS+’s flagship lender, spends the 2020s funding vanity airports, ghost ports, and strongmen’s utopias. By 2031, it’s dangerously overstretched. When Argentina and Egypt look set to default simultaneously, the institution teeters on the edge. China refuses to underwrite another Belt and Road disaster, so the bloc improvises.

They issue the “Bond of Last Resort”, a gold-backed debt instrument with the subtle charm of a medieval relic. Ironically, global investors snap it up as inflation ravages Western assets. The NDB survives—not by prudence, but because everyone else is worse.

Imagine if the Titanic floated because the sea evaporated. — South African finance minister, 2032

The NATO-Russia ceasefire (2032)

After a decade of cold attrition in Ukraine, both NATO and Russia settle for a frozen conflict. Russia, still sanctioned and diplomatically toxic, remains BRICS+’s awkward uncle. India, seizing the opportunity to look statesmanlike, brokers a deal: BRICS+ offers Russia reconstruction loans—on the condition it demilitarises Kaliningrad.

It’s not quite peace, but the optics are good enough. Suddenly, BRICS+ isn’t just a lender—it’s a geopolitical mediator. Accidental peacekeeping ensues.

If Russia’s the drunk uncle, India just offered him a couch, a job, and a haircut. — Think Tank Weekly, 2032

Saudi Arabia’s ‘yuan oil’ gambit backfires (2033)

Frustrated by US political strings, Riyadh prices its entire oil output in yuan. Initially, it seems a clever pivot—until China manipulates its currency to keep exports competitive, slashing oil revenues in real terms. Enraged, the UAE creates the “Petro-dirham”—a currency backed by AI-mined Gulf data and oil reserves.

Inexplicably, it catches on in Africa, where mobile payments outpace banks. BRICS+ now boasts two rival reserve assets with more charisma than cohesion.

We swapped a dollar cartel for a fintech bazaar. — African Central Bank governor, 2034

The great BRICS+ default (2034)

Argentina defaults. Egypt follows. Economists predict the NDB’s collapse within the month. Instead, BRICS+ invents the “Debt-for-Drones” programme. Countries unable to pay back loans can send over weapons tech, surveillance gear, or cyberwarfare training instead.

The scheme is absurd—but surprisingly popular. Rogue states queue up to trade militarised IP for forgiveness. BRICS+ accidentally builds the world’s most chaotic arms dealership under the guise of development.

You’re in debt? Fantastic! Have you considered contributing a drone swarm? — NDB brochure, probably

The 2035 outcome: A Frankenstein superpower

Financial system: A basket of chaos

BRICS+ never creates a single reserve currency. Instead, it limps along with a trio of mutually suspicious alternatives: the yuan for Chinese trade, the petro-dirham for Gulf oil, and the gold-backed “Bond of Last Resort” during crises. The dollar remains dominant, but monopoly status is lost. European exporters suffer the most, forced to juggle currencies in a marketplace that increasingly resembles a casino.

Energy: The OPEC+ zombie

Russia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia remain hostile behind closed doors, but BRICS+ insists on voting for oil quotas. The result is predictable: wild price swings, political tantrums, and ecological backsliding. Germany reopens coal plants. France doubles down on nuclear. The climate loses.

Security: The mercenary UN

There is no formal BRICS+ military pact, but member states begin to act with collective impunity. Wagner 2.0 surfaces in African capitals. Iranian drones operate with BRICS+ legal cover in the Middle East. Indian naval patrols enforce ambiguous “BRICS+ trade routes” in the Indian Ocean. Western powers hesitate to sanction the network—India and the UAE are too diplomatically useful.

Europe’s identity crisis

Germany now needs yuan for lithium, dirhams for oil, and gold to stabilise the Bundesbank’s nerves. France tries to revive European unity by bombing Mali—again. Eastern Europe quietly invites US troops back, hoping to avoid becoming the next pet project of BRICS+ “peacekeepers”.

Call it what you want. It walks like a superpower, it talks like a superpower … and it smells faintly of crude oil and panic. — Polish foreign minister, 2035

Why this could actually happen

The West, it turns out, is BRICS+’s best recruiting agent. Weaponised sanctions against Russia, trade wars with China, and internal financial cliffs within the US all signal to Global South nations that the old order is fragile. Even those skeptical of BRICS+ begin hedging their bets.

Historical precedent supports this. The 1971 Nixon Shock—ending the gold standard—wasn’t planned as a reinvention of global finance, yet it became one. BRICS+ may not intend to replace the dollar, but history has a thing for unintended consequences.

The NDB could become powerful not by competence, but by being the only game in town. If Western development institutions retreat, the NDB—with all its flaws—might fund projects no one else will touch. The chaos of Belt and Road turns into a kind of strange virtue.

Meanwhile, currency innovation explodes. What begins as a yuan experiment spirals into Gulf states inventing digital oil-backed tokens. The result is not a coherent reserve currency—but a chaotic ecosystem of barely-stable alternatives. It works because nothing else does.

India, despite its suspicions of China, finds itself at the heart of mediation efforts. Whether it’s brokering peace in Ukraine or reining in regional tensions, it becomes the ‘reluctant hegemon’—powerful not by ambition, but by necessity.

It’s the kind of empire you get when nobody’s driving and the brakes are broken. — Indian academic, New Delhi School of International Affairs

Final thought

The 21st century’s next superpower may not rise from unity, ideology, or vision. It may emerge instead from a dumpster fire of crises, grudges, and desperate improvisation.

BRICS+ could well become the “accidental superpower”—less an empire, more a chaotic alliance of convenience. But history rarely rewards neatness. Sometimes, failing upward is all it takes.

The West had plans. BRICS+ had momentum. Guess which one history remembers? — Future historian, 2050