Meet the key players

Benjamin Netanyahu – Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, now in his sixth term, is a master of political survival. His current tenure is propped up by far-right allies, a necessity given his ongoing corruption trials (fraud, bribery, and breach of trust). His primary objectives are maintaining power, weakening the judiciary to shield himself from legal accountability, and balancing the demands of his extremist coalition partners while attempting to project an image of statesmanship to the outside world.

Itamar Ben-Gvir – A convicted inciter to racism and disciple of the banned extremist Meir Kahane, Ben-Gvir has risen from fringe provocateur to National Security Minister. His tenure has been marked by calls for Jewish supremacy, the arming of settlers, and inflammatory visits to the Al-Aqsa compound—actions that have repeatedly escalated tensions. His resignation in January 2025 over a Gaza ceasefire deal (and subsequent return in March) underscores his role as a destabilising force in Israeli politics.

Bezalel Smotrich – A settler ideologue who blends religious zeal with bureaucratic efficiency, Smotrich wields unprecedented control over West Bank settlements as Finance Minister and de facto overseer of Palestinian civilian affairs. His vision includes annexation, mass Palestinian emigration, and the imposition of Torah-based governance. Unlike Ben-Gvir’s theatrics, Smotrich advances his agenda through legislative and administrative manoeuvres, making him arguably the more dangerous of the two.

What do they want?

Netanyahu’s priorities are, apparently, survival, first and foremost. His coalition depends on far-right support, meaning he must accommodate their demands—whether expanding settlements, undermining the judiciary, or prolonging the Gaza war. His balancing act is increasingly precarious, as international patience wears thin and domestic protests grow.

Ben-Gvir’s demands probably a maximalist approach to security, meaning more guns for settlers, harsher crackdowns on Palestinians, and the erosion of legal restraints on state violence. His resignation over the Gaza ceasefire was performative—he returned once hostilities resumed, proving his influence hinges on perpetual conflict.

Smotrich’s vision seems to be a Greater Israel achieved through bureaucratic annexation. By controlling settlement expansion and West Bank administration, he is methodically erasing the Green Line. His theological belief in divine redemption frames these policies as inevitable, making compromise unthinkable.

Where is this heading?

Short-term – The war in Gaza grinds on, with Netanyahu’s coalition rejecting permanent ceasefires. The West Bank simmers under increased settler violence and administrative strangulation of Palestinian governance. Meanwhile, Israel’s international isolation deepens, with even traditional allies like the US and EU growing critical.

Long-term – A de facto one-state reality, where Palestinians live under varying degrees of disenfranchisement. Smotrich’s annexation-by-stealth and Ben-Gvir’s ethno-nationalist rhetoric make a two-state solution impossible. The question is whether Israel can sustain this path without triggering either internal revolt or crippling sanctions.

Can they ignore International backlash?

Why they think they can – Unconditional US support (particularly under Trump), global distractions (Ukraine, US-China rivalry), and domestic political calculations all embolden them. Netanyahu’s coalition prioritises settler votes over diplomacy, and the far-right dismisses criticism as “anti-Israel bias”.

Why they might be wrong – Economic fallout (credit downgrades, trade restrictions) and security risks (Hezbollah, ICC warrants) are mounting. The Abraham Accords are fraying, and even staunch allies like the UK are imposing sanctions on violent settlers. The facade of impunity is cracking.

A government on borrowed time

Netanyahu’s coalition is a marriage of convenience between a desperate leader and ideological extremists. Their policies—annexation, perpetual war, and the erosion of democracy—are unsustainable. The only question is whether collapse comes from within (protests, military dissent) or from external pressure (sanctions, diplomatic isolation). Either way, the spiral continues.

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