Peace has running costs
Organised violence tends to appear where the substrate makes it the higher-return move, and to recede where it does not. That is one way to read the origins of war. Inverted, the same reading yields a second claim, less obvious and more useful. If war is what the ground rewards under some conditions, then peace is what the ground rewards under others, and neither is the default. A long stretch without organised violence is not the absence of something. It is the presence of conditions under which cooperation pays, and conditions like that can be built, and they can wear out. ...